skm95
Forum Newbie
Topics: 1
Posts: 16
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I just plotted the 2006 & 2007 residency application data for one particular program found in following post by bbb, and I see a huge jump in USMLE scores for both Step1 & Step2:
http://www.prep4usmle.com/comments.php?id=61418&f...
http://www.prep4usmle.com/comments.php?id=61418&f...
Also based on following data, approx. 50% IMGs succeeded in getting residency in 2007:
www.aamc.org/programs/cim/chartingoutcomes.pdf
So if the residency selection decisions were to be based on scores only, which in reality aren't, then the minimum scores required for an IMG to guarantee a spot would be (Step1=218, Step2=220) for 2006 and (Step1=223, Step2=225) for 2007.
So what will 2008 look like?????
Scary!!!!
NOTE: I only plotted the data in Pass range, i.e. Step1 =185+, and Step2=184+ (I also assumed that 99 for Step1=236 and Step2=239). Also note that number of applicants in 2006 are 1.5 times more than 2007.
Attached Files:
BBB_06-07.pdf (101 KB, 57 downloads)
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| Nikitosina
Forum Newbie
Topics: 6
Posts: 41
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Very interesting data! Thanks!
However it is probably not representative since you have analyzed only one program. May be the reputation of the progem improved and more better applicants applied in 2007. Than it will not represent the overall population of applicants.
Anyway I agree that things are getting tougher and competition is going to be fierce this year!
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| skm95
Forum Newbie
Topics: 1
Posts: 16
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Here is the latest graph for step-1 only based on new data posted by bbb here:
http://www.prep4usmle.com/comments.php?id=71751&f...
Attached Files:
BBB-060708.pdf (92 KB, 32 downloads)
Edited by skm95 on 09/25/08 - 12:53 AM
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| genbot
Easy...
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Posts: 1,050
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Great job skm!
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| MAB
Forum Elite
Topics: 20
Posts: 285
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in couple of years If you don't have 99/99/passed/99..as an IMG you won't be even ELIGIBLE for application I guess...this is ridiculous....
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91/84/cs passed,2005 grad,GC,no USCE
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| bbb
IM Program Coordinator
Topics: 33
Posts: 5,225
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Does that mean you want my current step 2 info? Not a problem.....
USMLE Step 2 CK Score Frequency
328
124 1
149 1
161 1
165 1
167 1
168 1
169 1
170 1
172 1
173 2
174 2
175 3
176 1
177 1
178 2
179 2
180 1
181 1
182 11
183 11
184 18
185 13
186 24
187 18
188 18
189 17
190 19
191 15
192 17
193 15
194 26
195 29
196 21
197 23
198 31
199 22
200 26
201 22
202 24
203 32
204 33
205 35
206 32
207 30
208 44
209 41
210 35
211 33
212 30
213 30
214 26
215 40
216 42
217 44
218 34
219 42
220 23
221 48
222 45
223 38
224 44
225 39
226 32
227 44
228 45
229 33
230 40
231 40
232 50
233 45
234 46
235 43
236 38
237 45
238 45
239 40
240 31
241 31
242 21
243 33
244 26
245 28
246 21
247 28
248 22
249 28
250 32
251 29
252 16
253 25
254 23
255 18
256 26
257 6
258 12
259 10
260 9
261 11
262 13
263 8
264 9
265 6
266 10
267 3
268 2
269 5
271 4
273 6
274 1
275 2
281 1
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bbb - trying to combine common sense and humour into realistic answers, but not going to guess on anyone's chances of getting into a position....
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| hitesh
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Topics: 64
Posts: 1,084
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bbb wrote:
237 45
238 45
239 40
240 31
241 31
242 21
243 33
244 26
245 28
246 21
247 28
248 22
249 28
250 32
251 29
252 16
253 25
254 23
255 18
256 26
257 6
258 12
259 10
260 9
261 11
262 13
263 8
264 9
265 6
266 10
267 3
268 2
269 5
271 4
273 6
274 1
275 2
281 1
Look at those numbers!  bbb, yours must be a very good program!
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| GOGETA
Trying to get in PGY1
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change you must to
you are a very good problem, they have her there
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| bbb
IM Program Coordinator
Topics: 33
Posts: 5,225
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GOGETA wrote:change you must to you are a very good problem, they have her there
Why thanks - that's the nicest thing that I have heard in several days. Thank you!
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bbb - trying to combine common sense and humour into realistic answers, but not going to guess on anyone's chances of getting into a position....
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| usmlekiller
Forum Guru
Topics: 18
Posts: 1,010
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wowwwwwwwwwwwww
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FUTURE 99ER
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| usmlekiller
Forum Guru
Topics: 18
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dude with 281.......i wish i was him lolll
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FUTURE 99ER
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| Miradautas Vras
Forum Elite
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Posts: 493
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Whoa! But looking at it from other PoV , doesn't that rather dilute the impacts 99s would have [ well people with insane scores are rather exempt I think] on apps? There's like almost 30-40% people with 99s~ thats preposterous. Doesn't that make program scourge for something else as a selection criteria say, LoRs, other degrees, personal qualities [ PS, CAF etc] rather than scores? Just curious. The distribution of scores is mercilessly skewed. Median score of 230 is crazy.
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| adr
Forum Junior
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i still believe making high scores are good BUT it does not determine if you will be a very good physician
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| bbb
IM Program Coordinator
Topics: 33
Posts: 5,225
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adr wrote:i still believe making high scores are good BUT it does not determine if you will be a very good physician
ABSO-FREAKING-LUTELY!!! I couldn't agree more with you. On the other side, programs are graded as to our board pass rates.....which is why we look at scores......double-edged sword.
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bbb - trying to combine common sense and humour into realistic answers, but not going to guess on anyone's chances of getting into a position....
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| genbot
Easy...
Topics: 20
Posts: 1,050
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Is that why programs prefer somebody with a pass on Step3 ?...tells them this guy is most probably going to pass the board exam?....from what I hear they say step 3 is tougher than the IM board
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| genbot
Easy...
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Here's a summary of the applicant scores at bbb's program this year...
Step1 (2512)
3-digit scores
<200..................350
200-209..............322
210-219..............429
220-229..............471
230-239..............512
240-249..............297
250-259..............149
260+....................41
2-digit scores
<80....................350
80-90..................751
91-98..................745
99+...................666 (26%)
Step2ck (2423)
3-digit scores
<200.................369
200-209..............356
210-219..............356
220-229..............391
230-239..............432
240-249..............269
250-259.............197
260+...................90
2-digit scores
<80...................369
80-90.................675
91-98.................655
99+...............724 (30%)
Incredibly in both Step 1&2 there are as many people with a 99 as there are ones with scores in the ranges 80-89 and 90-98...!!! 
In fact in Step2CK 99ers constitute the most numerous group! Even more incredible is the fact that 90 guys have a 260 or better score on step2!!
In both Step 1&2 the 3 digit category with the most candidates is the 230-239 group. Thereafter scores tend to drop off rapidly (less so for Step2, which has a higher percentage of high scores, although it's considered to be a tougher test; may be related to more items tested on the exam, 368 compared to 350 previously).
Very few programs offer more than 300 interviews I guess. Now imagine a PD/PC faced with about 700 candidates with a score of 99. I sure wouldn't want to be in their shoes! No wonder they're taking their own 'sweet' time replying to our applications!
But numbers apart, let's keep our perspective...while scores may act as a general pointer to your potential, they constitute just one aspect of your application among so many other important ones. And being a good doctor is an absolutely different ball game!
P.S: From the numbers above it seems that there's about 90 guys yet to take/ have their scores out for step2ck. Hurry up guys!!!
Edited by genbot on 09/26/08 - 04:18 AM
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| hitesh
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Posts: 1,084
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genbot wrote:P.S: From the numbers above it seems that there's about 90 guys yet to take/ have their scores out for step2ck. Hurry up guys!!!
One of them is me.. ..
good analysis btw..
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| sackatdoc
Forum Guru
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Posts: 605
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 genius genbot great work!!! very informative and enlightening, keep up the good work
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| genbot
Easy...
Topics: 20
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Thanks hitesh and sackatdoc!
Simple arithmetic, no geniuso.
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| sachida
Forum Guru
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Posts: 624
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great analysis...genbot and skm95
very helpful to see it in prespective.
If you head over to IM match thread 90% of IV recipient have had atleast one score of 99. And I recently saw someone getting rejection with 99. So definately each program is thinking about more than scores.
Overall, it just tells me that if I get a prematch..I better take one.
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