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NBME 3q

Kaplan Test Prep and Admissions (Kaptest.com)

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5 Posts

epc924
Forum Junior

Topics: 12
Posts: 61

03/13/08 - 12:38 AM

16. The table shows survival information for patients who had an operation for a particular form of cancer:

Patients Patients Patients
at the Beginning Who Died During Surviving
Interval of the Interval the Interval This Interval (%)
0-1 year 500 100 80
1-2 years 400 50 87.5
2-3 years 350 35 90
3-4 years 315 31 90

Based on this information, if a patient survives for 1 year, which of the following is the probability that he or she will survive for 4 years?

A ) (0.875 – 0.8) × 0.9 = 0.0675

B ) 0.8 × 0.875 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.567

C ) 0.875 × 0.9 = 0.7875

D ) 0.875 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.7088

E ) 0.9

F ) 0.9 – 0.875 = 0.025

i chose D since the pt has survived the first year, but the answer given is B
anyone get this?

Tiff
Forum Guru

Topics: 46
Posts: 439

03/13/08 - 11:59 AM

Not sure if I understand the question. What do all those values mean after each year interval?

macintosh
Forum Elite

Topics: 38
Posts: 181

03/13/08 - 12:22 PM

I choose choice "D"

Here is how I solved it:

1 × 0.875 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.875 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.7088

As the question states that the person survived the first year, therefore his probability of surving during the first year is 100% or 1.

By the way, is the given answer provided by the NBME?

hao
Forum Newbie

Topics: 1
Posts: 10

03/16/08 - 08:03 PM

I solve it this way:
(315-31)/400=0.71

epc924
Forum Junior

Topics: 12
Posts: 61

03/22/08 - 03:48 PM

macintosh wrote:
I choose choice "D"

Here is how I solved it:

1 × 0.875 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.875 × 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.7088

As the question states that the person survived the first year, therefore his probability of surving during the first year is 100% or 1.

By the way, is the given answer provided by the NBME?

the answer is provided by some guy who claim score 800 on this form

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