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Kaplan Qbank USMLE



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i guess this question belongs to epidemiology, have no clue how to answer it!

Q: 55year old man visits his primary health care physician witha complaint of urinary infrequency. Examination finds a 1cm - nodule on his prostrate gald. The physician orders a prostrate specific antigen (PSA) serum test. By common standards a PSA level greater than 4ng/ml is considered abnormal. Using this standard the test has a sensitivity of 80% and specificity of 90%. A recently published epidemiological article found that in a cross-sectionl study showed that 10% of the men of this age have prostrate cancer. The result on the patients PSA is 7ng/ml. what what is your best estimate of the likelihood that this man actually has prostrate cancer.
a) 13%
b) 25%
c) 36%
d) 47%
e) 58%
f) 69%
g) 72%
h) 81%







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