2002tii
Forum Senior
Topics: 5
Posts: 80
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I have gone through all the posted scores on the score thread and put them all into Excel to see what kind of correlations come out. It looks like the NBME exams are the best predictor, no surprise, followed by the USMLE CD, Qbank, Qbook, Usmleworld, and finally with the Kaplan Simulated Exam.
Now this is by far from being a great predictor. I think the main reason why Usmleworld is so far down the list is because a lot of people use that early on, and as a study method. Thus, many low scores end up being posted for people who end up doing very well.
Another weakness is that people mainly only post high scores, so alot of these predictions end up skewed towards the higher scores. Also, these are self reported scores, so the truthfullness cannot be guaranteed.
Some scores were disregarded because of obvious mistakes, such as someone stating they got 48, 48, etc. on the CD, when only 46 are possible. Also if scores were distant from exam date I may have ignored them. Most of the estimates were ignored, unless a very close range was stated.
Anyway, here are the correlations I have calculated thus far:
3-digit = 2.8616*USMLECD% - 11.8, R2 = 0.526, n = 75
= 2.1628*Qbank% + 75.8, R2 = 0.475, n = 72
= 2.1141*Qbook% + 77.0, R2 = 0.462, n = 44
= 1.7687*UW% + 121.7, R2 = 0.405, n = 102
= 2.2059*KapSim% + 70.7, R2 = 0.265, n = 34
So please continue to post scores on the score thread, both high and low, so that we can get even better correlations. I'll be happy to give more details to those interested.
Edited by 2002tii on 09/09/06 - 08:55 AM. Reason: updated scores through 9/4/06
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| drbee29
Forum Elite
Topics: 17
Posts: 111
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Hey 2002tii! Great formula. Mind if i ask you your confidence interval? I tried to input my values and they were right on the mark with my NBME! Hehehe....thanks! Now i hope that it's totally reliable. Thanks again buddy!
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| 2002tii
Forum Senior
Topics: 5
Posts: 80
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Sorry, but I haven't calculated confidence intervals. For the meantime the r-squared values will have to do. Not exactly sure I would know how to get the confidence intervals either... I wouldn't count on these being totally reliable, for the reasons I explained above. For interests sake I compared the NBME correlations I calculated to the published correlations from NBME. Once again, I think a lot of the error is introduced from mainly high scores being posted, so there is a positive skew.
Edited by 2002tii on 08/05/06 - 08:52 PM
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| doctor32
Forum Newbie
Topics: 1
Posts: 3
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I took my exam on the 1st of this month and i am freaking out, could you tell me if you can how many questions per block i need to get just to pass? and do you know how many questions they throw out from 368 Qs.
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| nida
Forum Elite
Topics: 23
Posts: 87
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good job! 2002tii
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| blueprints
Forum Junior
Topics: 7
Posts: 89
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hi2002tii:
i'll receive my score within few days, but very much curious to predict my score before receiving it. my scores were:
q bank: 78%-qbook 81%-simulator:82%-usmle CD: avarage: 42/46-NBME2:530.
what will bemy score??????
thanks in advance
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| BCG
Forum Newbie
Topics: 0
Posts: 1
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hi, 2002ti.
I am new to this form . i can't understand your formula. what is the basic formula where i can put my numbers. what is R2?
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