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Kaplan Qbank USMLE



Author6 Posts
  #1

16. The table shows survival information for patients who had an operation for a particular form of cancer: Table

Patients at the Beginning of the Interval / Patients Who Died During the Interval /Patients Surviving This Interval (%)
0-1 year -500 100 80
1-2 years -400 50 87.5
2-3 years -350 35 90
3-4 years -315 31 90 Based on this information, if a patient survives for 1 year, which of the following is the probability that he or she will survive for 4 years?
A. (0.875 - 0.8) X 0.9 = 0.0675
B. 0.8 X 0.875 X 0.9 X 0.9 = 0.567
C. 0.875 X 0.9 = 0.7875
D. 0.875 X 0.9 X 0.9 = 0.7088
E. 0.9
F. 0.9 X 0.875 = 0.025


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  #2

D.

  #3

D

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  #4

Yes D


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  #5

Can anybody explain in detail.

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  #6

yes it is answer d
the question is conditional probability
what is the prob that the patiest survives for 4 years given he survived the first year
so
u multiply all the prob divided the given prob for the first yr

0.8*0.87*0.9*0.9/0.8
that gives ans d







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