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Author14 Posts
  #1

Can any mathematician out there even briefly explain confidence interval??

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  #2

the difference b/w the upper and lower confidence limits is called the confidence interval.

sample of 101 adult male (NY), their mean weight is 72 kg and standard deviation is 15;

then the estimated standard error is therefore 1.5 (standard dev/underroot n-1) then estimated standard error is 1.5 and researcher can state that he is 95% confident that the true mean weight of all adult male (NY) lies between 69 and 75 (as SE is 1.5 and mean is 72 so 95% confidence would be from 69 to 75).

now here comes the point, the confidence interval is now 75-69 = 6 kg.

hope this helps.......


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Dr. SA

  #3

Yes -It helped- Thank you . Ill follow up on it.

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Smell the coffee! "Is That an Osler move??"

  #4

The actual formual for C.I.= mean + or - Z score times standard error of the mean. Anyone know what a Z score is ????

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Smell the coffee! "Is That an Osler move??"

  #5

Z scores are needed to set the level of confidence. so for a 95% confidence the s value is 1.96 (or 2) and for a 99% confidence its 2.58 (or 2.5)


  #6

dear mjl1717:

this is the formula for confidence limit not for interval.

confidence limit = mean (+ or -) z score times standard error

and the confidence interval is the difference b/w the upper and lower limits....


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Dr. SA

  #7

Thank you -Every point helps and I KNOW your info helps many on the forum!

___________________
Smell the coffee! "Is That an Osler move??"

  #8

jiyaji110 wrote:
the difference b/w the upper and lower confidence limits is called the confidence interval.

sample of 101 adult male (NY), their mean weight is 72 kg and standard deviation is 15;

then the estimated standard error is therefore 1.5 (standard dev/underroot n-1) then estimated standard error is 1.5 and researcher can state that he is 95% confident that the true mean weight of all adult male (NY) lies between 69 and 75 (as SE is 1.5 and mean is 72 so 95% confidence would be from 69 to 75).

now here comes the point, the confidence interval is now 75-69 = 6 kg.

hope this helps.......

is it SD/squre root n not n-1?

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Wish best of luck to all users

  #9

This discussion help me alot.
To SA:
n-1 is ok, and popular for all kind of samples.
you can use n when the sample is big enough..... at that time n-1 is approximate to n
is that right?


  #10

If Confidence Interval for relative risk contains 1, then there is no statistically significant effect of exposure (very high-yield and likely USMLE question!). Why? What is the meaning beyond these words?

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"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein

  #11

Confidence Interval of the "Standard Error Of the Mean"


Mean +/- Z(SD/ squareroot(N) )


  #12

You don't get my question.

___________________
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein

  #13

p53 , lets first define relative risk. it is a " Comparative Probabilty". So it is the relation between " TWO" probabilties. If it is an exact one, then that means that their is no "Risk". Ok let's back away from abstracting and give an example. Suppose that we have group A 20 people ,they all smoke. 8 of them has ashma. Another group B of 20 persons do not smoke, 4 persons have ashma. Now after conducting a study that concluded that smoking is related to ashma, the next step is to know what is the " Relative risk of developing ashma" so we devide 8/4 and the result is 2 right?..what does that 2 mean?.It means that you are twice at risk to develop ashma if are a smoker compared to a non smoker , you notice the " Comparative probability " here?..now, suppose the study showed that only 4 people had ashma among group A and the same number 4 has ashma among group B, then the relative risk is 1. Which tells that it does not matter if you smoke or not, 4 chances out of 20 you will get ashma regardless. Now apply this to the confidence interval. If your study showed that the relative risk say was 1.4 with a confidence interval of (0.8-2) then that means that your study has no statistical significance because at some point within this range, the relative risk can be 1 which means nothing! or no risk..


  #14

Excellent explanation!

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"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein







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