frontier
Forum Junior
Topics: 14
Posts: 26
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What is the probability that a man lives for 4 years, provided that he lived for 1year if you know that:
Probability to live from 0 to 1 year is X.
Probability to live from 1 to 2 year is Y.
Probability to live from 2 to 3 year is Z.
Probability to live from 3 to 4 year is W.
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| mjl1717
Forum Hero
Topics: 955
Posts: 5,450
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Should be:
the product of W times X timesY timesZ
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| chemamr
Moderator and PGY1
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(W)(X)(Y)(Z) ?
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| kingsofke
Forum Guru
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I think Multiplication rule cannot be applied as these are not independent events Infact they are mutually exclusive i.e. in presence of one other cannot occur So we would use Addition rule ie X+Y+Z+W 
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| docdanckers
Forum Newbie
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Maybe im flying to high but , couldnt it be a conditional probability (you depend on how it goes on the fisrt year to go to the next one). In that case, the answer would be WY/XZ
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| ssrpk
Forum Fanatic
Topics: 154
Posts: 2,798
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well it is indeed joint probablities of independent events, in series!
if ths person has already lived for 1 yr, then from 1sy yeaqr and onwrds it's simply the rule of multiplication!
tht means he would hv to gpo through 3 more events whih are independent!
therefore,it can't be mutually exclusive as it considers diff. states within an event for eg. if alive then definitely not dead!
answer is X x Y x Z
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| txgirl
Forum Newbie
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Y*W*Z
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